Supply and Demand Modeling for California’s Behavioral Health Workforce

Key Findings#

• In 2025, all 58 counties are projected to face a shortage across all behavioral health roles examined, with the most severe shortages in the Northern & Sierra, Inland Empire, and San Joaquin Valley CHIS regions. 
• All regions and counties are projected to face a shortage of Non-Prescribing Licensed Clinicians in 2025, with 22 counties facing a severe shortage of -50% or more. Statewide, this represents a -40.6% shortage and an estimated need for 55,298 additional providers to meet forecasted demand.
• By 2033, it is projected that the overall statewide shortage of Non-Prescribing Licensed Clinicians will increase to just over -42%, resulting in a need for 171,413 total providers to meet future demand, nearly double the current statewide supply.
• In 2025, nearly all regions and counties are projected to face a shortage of Associate Level Clinicians, with 17 counties facing a severe shortage of -50% or more. Statewide, this represents a -33.6% shortage and an estimated need for 13,175 additional providers to meet forecasted demand.
• By 2033, the statewide shortage of Associate Level Clinicians is projected to decrease by half (-17.7%). However, 43 counties will still face a shortage of -5% or more while 11 counties will face a surplus of 5% or more, indicating a potential maldistribution of providers.
• All regions and counties are projected to face a shortage of Psychiatrists in 2025, with 39 counties facing a severe shortage of -50% or more. Statewide, this represents an estimated need for 3,782 additional providers to meet forecasted demand. By 2033, it is projected that need will double to more than 6,200 additional providers needed to meet forecasted demand.

Note: Current data as of 2022, model projections 2023-2033.  

How HCAI Created This Product#

• HCAI developed models to measure and predict the current and future supply and demand of California’s Behavioral Health workforce. These models utilize licensing data and care delivery trends broken down by role or role group to create supply projections by Full Time Equivalent (FTE). These FTEs are used in conjunction with actual reported average patient care hours and employment rates from each role or role group to determine supply and demand at the provider level. In addition, these models consider the current and potential future demand for each role or role grouping based on capacity and utilization rates, as well as provider-to-population ratios based on setting, and calculated inpatient met/unmet demand and outpatient met/unmet demand for each role. See HCAI’s Modeling Methodology documentation for additional details.
• Behavioral Health professions were categorized into the following role or role groups based on role similarity and scope of practice:
  • Associate Level Clinicians: Associate Clinical Social Worker (ACSW), Associate Marriage and Family Therapist (AMFT), Associate Professional Clinical Counselor (APCC) and Registered Psychological Associate (RPA)
  • Non-Prescribing Licensed Clinicians: Licensed Clinical Social Worker (LCSW), Licensed Marriage and Family Therapist (LMFT), Licensed Professional Clinical Counselor (LPCC), and Psychologist (PSY)
  • Psychiatrists: Physician and Surgeon (MD) and Osteopathic Physician and Surgeon (DO) with a specialty in Psychiatry
• Population projections were taken from the US Department of Finance’s P-2A Total Population for California and Counties
• Four major region types (California Community Colleges (CCC) Regions, CHIS Regions, Job First Regions, and Labor Market Regions) were used to provide multiple geographic comparisons. The breakdowns of each Region Type are listed below: